WTO: The energy and food crisis is just around the corner

The WTO has published an update to the Global Trade Outlook and Statistics Report.

The report warned that global trade could be hit much harder than expected if rising tensions in the region due to U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran keep energy prices high.

The report notes that rising energy costs will place additional strain on food supplies and services trade if conflicts continue, and notes that disruptions in the travel and transport sectors could reduce trade volumes.

After strong growth last year thanks to the impact of artificial intelligence-powered products, the report expects a slowdown in 2026 and includes the following assessments:

“Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East could further reduce trade growth if energy prices remain high. This will also put pressure on food supplies and trade in services due to disruptions in travel and transport. However, if the conflicts end quickly and the rise in artificial intelligence spending continues, the global trade outlook could improve again.”

In the report, WTO economists predicted that if crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices remain high in 2026, the growth rate of global goods trade could fall 0.5 points from the growth forecast to 1.4 percent.

“Food safety is at risk”

In her assessment of the problem, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that the crisis in the Middle East threatens basic food security and consumer costs, adding: “Continuous increases in energy prices can escalate global trade risks through cost pressures on food security, consumers and businesses.” he said.

Okonjo-Iweala called on member countries to cooperate in combating the risks of global trade, arguing that member countries can ease economic burdens around the world by pursuing predictable measures.

Turning to the logistical dimension of the Middle East conflict, the WTO report found that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz affected fertilizer supplies, which are critical to global agriculture.

The report recalled that a third of global fertilizer exports pass through this region and noted that major agricultural producers such as India, Thailand and Brazil face serious import risks.

The report said that global trade in goods, which grew by 4.6 percent in 2025 due to the impact of artificial intelligence-focused products, is expected to decline to 1.9 percent in 2026 in the baseline scenario due to the normalization process and geopolitical risks.

However, the report predicted that if the crisis in the Middle East worsens, this figure could be significantly lower and services trade growth could slow to 4.1 percent.