Prof. Dr. Hakkı Baltacı, a faculty member of the Earth and Marine Sciences Institute of Gebze University of Technology, noted that the sea surface temperature in the summer months in the Eastern Black Sea has increased by about 2.5 degrees in the last 40 years, including 1.6 degrees in the last 10 years, and that this increase triggers sudden and heavy rainfall, which increases the risk of flooding.
While temperature increases on a global scale can also be observed in seawater temperatures, this can have an impact on the course of weather events in different regions.
Faculty member of the Institute of Earth and Marine Sciences at Gebze University of Technology, Prof. Dr. The research conducted by Hakkı Baltacı examined the connection between the change in seawater temperatures and heavy rainfall in the Eastern Black Sea region.
Summer seawater temperatures in the region were found to have increased by about 2.5 degrees over the past 40 years, with 1.6 degrees of that occurring in the past 10 years.
The research also found that seawater temperatures, which have reached 26 degrees in summer in recent years, increase the amount of moisture entering the atmosphere, favoring the emergence of sudden heavy rainfall under suitable atmospheric conditions.
Heavy rainfall and risk of flooding in coastal areas
Responding to questions about the research results, Baltacı said that semi-enclosed seas such as the Black Sea are more significantly affected by climate change.
Emphasizing that sea warming poses a greater risk of disasters compared to land warming in the Black Sea, Baltacı said: “An excessive increase in sea water temperature brings heavy rainfall and the risk of flooding and inundation in coastal areas. This has become extremely clear and increasingly observed due to climate change. This is particularly evident in the Black Sea.” he said.
Stating that the average temperatures in the Black Sea are 9 degrees in winter, 11 degrees in spring, 23 degrees in summer and 18 degrees in autumn, Baltacı continued:
“In the last 10 years, we have started to see the effects of climate change much more serious. Due to this increase in temperature, sea water temperatures usually reached up to 25 degrees in July and August, but if we look to the year 2025, this temperature increase has reached 26 degrees, especially in late July and August. This situation has also led to an extreme formation in the eastern Black Sea.
“We can describe the eastern Black Sea region as a kind of 'hot pool'.”
Baltacı pointed out that the irregular rainfall regime in the Eastern Black Sea region will extend to the May-September period if current climate change trends continue, and shared his forecast that sudden heavy rains will become more frequent and the risk of floods will increase due to the impact of urbanization.
Baltacı made the following assessments:
“As part of the study, we defined the heavy rains that occurred on the same day in the Eastern Black Sea region around Rize, Artvin and Hopa and were above the threshold values, and identified 6 different days. These are the days July 9, 2016, July 29, 2016, August 24, 2015, August 12, 2004, July 10, 1992, August 29 1988. Heavy rainfall above the threshold was recorded “When we studied the atmospheric mechanisms that caused these precipitations during those days, we found that the seawater temperature was above 26 degrees.” We saw that strong northwesterly currents and humidity influenced the formation of convergence and convective clouds in the lower layer of the atmosphere, and that the instability conditions of the atmosphere and the mountain structure of the region played a role in the formation of heavy precipitation.”
Stating that seawater temperatures in the Eastern Black Sea are about 0.5 degrees higher than in the Western Black Sea, Baltacı said: “We can particularly call the Eastern Black Sea a kind of 'hot basin'. It has reached this point. Climate change is having an extremely significant impact.” he said.
Baltacı pointed out that moisture is concentrated in the narrow coastal strip in the eastern Black Sea region due to the mountainous topography and that successive cloud systems in the same region increase the risk of heavy rains, especially in the afternoon.
Stating that seawater temperatures should be monitored regularly between May and September to reduce risks, Baltacı recommended using high-resolution weather forecast models specific to the region and strengthening early warning systems with a holistic approach.
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