According to the information compiled from the General Directorate of Soil Products (TMO) report “Phenological Assessment – Precipitation, Planting and Development Analysis in Cereals and Pulses” for February, an average of 136.8 millimeters of rainfall was recorded across Turkey last month.
There was a more than 100 percent increase in rainfall compared to seasonal normal and in February last year. The amount of precipitation reached 387.7 millimeters in the entire period from October 1, 2025 to February 28, 2026.
The normal rainfall was 313 millimeters (average for the period 1991-2020) and last year it was 221.4 millimeters, 24 percent above normal and 75 percent above last year's rainfall.
Plant development in the normal course
According to the report, as of February, crop development in grain-growing areas across Türkiye is largely in line with seasonal norms and is generally positive. In many regions, winter precipitation is close to or above seasonal norms, which promotes plant growth by increasing soil moisture.
While tillering and stemming periods continued for most cereals, plant development was found to be more advanced, particularly in early planted areas.
In the Marmara region, grain is generally at the end of tillering and the beginning of the stalking period. Plant growth is good and most major fertilizer applications have been completed. Although yellowing is observed in areas with high water tables, overall production is expected to be positive.
Plant development in the Aegean region varies depending on planting time and altitude. Planting continues in the highlands, and the period of isolation has begun in the plains. The heavy rains in February had an overall positive impact, but in some areas some agricultural land was temporarily inundated due to flooding.
Dam occupancy rates are high in the Mediterranean region
In the Mediterranean region, grain development occurs during the tillering and stemming period. While rainfall has a positive effect on plant growth, puddling and local yellowing are observed in lowland areas. The fight against rust disease, which mainly affects wheat in early sowing areas, has begun. The high dam utilization in the region is also seen as a positive development with regard to irrigation.
While regular rains in February in the Southeastern Anatolia region promoted crop growth, most major fertilizer applications were completed. While yellowing due to water accumulation is observed in some areas, there is generally no significant disease or pest pressure.
Winter rain and snow in the Central Anatolia region increased soil moisture and contributed to high plant emergence rates, especially in barren areas. The level of development of the plants shows positive prospects in terms of yield.
In the Black Sea region, grain is in the tillering period. Due to the low temperatures, slight yellowing due to cold stress can be observed in some places, but no serious damage could be found. Plant development and yield expectations are at a normal level.
In many provinces of Eastern Anatolia, plants are in the dormant phase as the land surface is covered with snow. Plant growth has been observed to be normal in areas where snow cover has been removed and no significant diseases or pests have been detected to date.
Positive outlook for grain production
Evaluating Türkiye in general, adequate winter rainfall in grain production, healthy crop development and limited disease and pest pressure suggest positive production prospects. It is assumed that the production season will be positive and highly productive in almost all regions.
It is estimated that with sufficient rainfall in April-May, grain production yield in 2026 may be significantly higher than the long-term average.
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