Oil supplies fell last month due to attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East and restrictions on the passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) oil market report.
While global oil supplies fell by 1 million,800,000 barrels per day to 95.1 million barrels in April, the total supply loss since the start of the war was 12.8 million barrels per day.
During this period, daily production by the OPEC+ group, consisting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC producing countries, fell by 1.9 million barrels to 40 million 100,000 barrels. While the group's production remained 11.9 million barrels per day below pre-war levels, OPEC production fell to its lowest level in 35 years.
Non-OPEC+ supply made only a limited recovery in April from March's low, rising by 90,000 barrels per day to 54.9 million barrels. Still, production remained 820,000 barrels per day lower than before the conflict, reflecting the impact of losses following Iran's attacks on Qatar's energy infrastructure.
Total Gulf oil exports rose by 1.9 million barrels per day in April compared to the previous month, reaching 10.5 million barrels.
Oil exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iraq and Iran, excluding the Strait of Hormuz, increased by 1.3 million barrels per day in April, reaching 7.8 million barrels.
Total oil production in the Middle East Gulf region, including Qatar, fell 45 percent, or 14.4 million barrels per day, since the start of the war, reaching 17.6 million barrels in April.
The Strait of Hormuz is predicted to remain closed until early June
The report said that at the time of writing the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed and negotiations between the US and Iran were ongoing, and that there was significant uncertainty in the forecasts.
The report said that in the current scenario, the strait is expected to remain closed until early June, and that it could take at least two to three months for exports to fully return to normal following demining efforts, and that a serious recovery in oil production in the Middle East could potentially take longer.
The report also noted that damage to energy infrastructure is included in current estimates, but projections may be revised when there is clearer data on the true extent of the impact and the recovery process.
It was estimated that global oil supply would fall by 530,000 barrels per day to 94.5 million barrels in May and that a gradual recovery process would begin from the third quarter of 2026. Global oil production was predicted to fall to 102.2 million barrels per day in 2026, a decline of 3.9 million barrels per day compared to the previous year.
Losses in Qatar weigh on production outside OPEC+
The OPEC+ group's output is expected to fall by 4.7 million barrels a day to 46.4 million barrels this year, due to the impact of sharp production shortfalls in the Gulf states, according to the calculation including the UAE.
On the other hand, production outside OPEC+ is estimated to reach 55.8 million barrels per day, with an increase of 820,000 barrels, thanks to increases from the “American Five”, consisting of the USA, Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina, which more than offset the production losses in Qatar.
It was noted that the total oil supply loss from the Gulf states has already exceeded 1 billion barrels as tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is still at limited levels, and daily production of more than 14 million barrels has stopped, resulting in an unprecedented supply shock.
Nevertheless, the assessment noted that the market entered the crisis under conditions of oversupply and noted that the current gap between supply and demand remained at a lower level due to the response of both producers and consumers to market signals.
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