While these developments on the commodity markets were mixed, investors' focus was on the monetary policy decisions of the major central banks.
While risks related to maritime transport in the Strait of Hormuz led to the maintenance of the geopolitical risk premium in oil and natural gas pricing, inflation concerns due to energy prices had a decisive influence on pricing.
The news about whether or not US-Iran negotiations will resume sparked caution in markets. On the last trading day of the week, US moves to restart negotiations partially supported risk appetite in commodity markets.
White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt announced that US President Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner will attend US-Iran talks expected to take place in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan. US Vice President JD Vance will not attend the meeting.
Leavitt said he would closely monitor the negotiation process with Trump's national security team and could take any action depending on the picture that emerged.
On the other hand, given the tensions in the Middle East, all eyes are on the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision next week.
Based on pricing in the money markets, it is certain that the Fed will keep interest rates steady at 3.50-3.75 percent next week. Fears that rising energy costs due to conflicts in the Middle East could increase inflationary pressures have led to the Fed postponing interest rate cut expectations for this year.
As geopolitical tensions take center stage, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's oral guidance is expected to shed light on the Fed's roadmap for the next period. Powell's statements on energy prices, inflation prospects and monetary policy are expected to have implications for precious metals, particularly gold, oil and base metals.
Analysts noted that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting where the interest rate decision will be made is the last meeting Powell will hold before the end of his term.
When it came to precious metals, the strong dollar and high interest rate pressure came to the fore
Precious metals ended the week on a negative note, with forecasts that concerns over developments in the Middle East could have a negative impact on monetary policy expectations from major central banks.
While uncertainties about the negotiation process between the US and Iran and supply concerns due to the Strait of Hormuz supported oil prices, the high trend in energy costs increased global inflation expectations. This situation reinforced expectations that major central banks could be more cautious in cutting interest rates.
As interest rate cut expectations weakened, there was a recovery in the dollar index and a rise in US bond yields, putting pressure on non-interest bearing precious metals.
Analysts noted that geopolitical risks supported safe-haven assets, particularly gold, but the strong dollar and high interest rate expectations were more crucial to pricing throughout the week.
With these developments, precious metal prices fell on an ounce basis by 6.5 percent for silver, 4.5 percent for platinum, 4.5 percent for palladium and 2.6 percent for gold.
This was followed by China data and concerns about base metal supplies
In base metals, geopolitical risks from the Middle East and energy supply concerns weighed on prices this week, while investor focus turned to macroeconomic data for the Chinese economy.
Macroeconomic data announced in China in March showed that industrial growth continued, but momentum in domestic demand and investment continued.
While the country's industrial production rose 5.7 percent on an annual basis in March, retail sales growth fell to 1.7 percent. Fixed investment also remained below expectations and rose by 1.7 percent in the first quarter of the year.
Supply concerns and market balance expectations impacted the weekly rise in nickel prices. News that oversupply may be easing and expectations of a recovery in stainless steel demand supported nickel prices throughout the week.
In the case of aluminum, the energy-intensive production structure and logistics risks from the Middle East had a price-increasing effect. Transportation risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz were reflected in pricing through energy and freight costs.
For copper, mixed signals regarding Chinese demand and uncertainties about the global growth outlook added to selling pressure. Although the recovery in risk appetite supported copper prices at times during the week, there was a decline on a weekly basis.
In the over-the-counter base metals market, prices in pounds rose 6.3 percent for nickel, 1.3 percent for zinc and 1.2 percent for aluminum. While copper fell by 0.8 percent, the price of lead remained unchanged.
The flow of news across the Strait of Hormuz impacted Brent oil
In the week that ended in the energy market, supply concerns from the Middle East and news regarding the Strait of Hormuz were key factors in pricing.
While contradictory statements on the US-Iran line negotiation process increased concerns that there could be a disruption in oil supplies, risks related to sea transport also supported Brent oil prices.
The crucial importance of the Strait of Hormuz for the global transport of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) has increased the sensitivity of supply security in markets. As risks associated with energy supplies through the region increased, a geopolitical risk premium was added to oil prices.
Although news that the negotiation process could resume on some days of the week resulted in limited price relief, supply concerns maintained high price trends throughout the week.
In contrast to the oil market, the US natural gas market was dominated by internal dynamics. While the higher-than-expected increase in inventories limited the upward movement in prices, expectations for LNG export demand and consumption prospects due to periodic weather conditions supported prices.
With these developments, the barrel price of Brent oil rose by 13.5 percent and the price of natural gas in British Thermal Units (MMBtu) rose by 0.3 percent on a weekly basis.
Energy and logistics costs impacted agricultural commodities
For agricultural commodities, geopolitical risks from the Middle East, rising energy prices, logistics costs and weather conditions were key factors in pricing.
While the Strait of Hormuz news increased volatility in oil prices, it highlighted cost pressures on agricultural products from fertilizer, freight and insurance costs.
The ongoing threat of drought in winter wheat growing areas in the USA had a positive effect on the increase in wheat prices.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, only 30 percent of winter wheat is in “good/very good” condition, raising concerns about production quality. On the other hand, Russia's reassessment of wheat export tax and upward revision of production forecasts were the factors that limited prices on the global supply side.
Corn prices were supported by strong export demand and increases in energy markets.
With these developments, prices per bushel on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rose 2.8 percent for wheat and 1.3 percent for corn, while they fell 2.7 percent for rice and 0.5 percent for soybeans.
While pound prices on the Intercontinental Exchange in the US rose by 4.6 percent for sugar and 3.7 percent for coffee, cotton fell by 0.3 percent. The price per ton of cocoa also ended the week with an increase of 4.8 percent.
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