Forecasts of climate change are created in accordance with the scenarios, which are referred to as representative concentration paths /RCP and the atmospheric temperatures are increased if global greenhouse gas emissions are not controlled.
According to RCP8.5, the most pessimistic scenario, the growth that is based on fossil fuels in the world is increasing quickly. In this case, the temperatures are expected to increase by 3.2 to 5.4 degrees by 2100. According to the RCP4.5, the middle scenario in which the emissions are increased and then determined, the temperature increase is expected to be between 1.8 and 3.2 degrees. In RCP2.6 the most optimistic scenario is fast and the temperature rise is limited to an average of 1 to 1.8 degrees.
Prof. Dr. Ilıcak and his team used the Ocean Circulatory model through simulation, which were created until the year of the surface temperatures of the Black Sea.
According to the simulation produced according to the RCP scenarios, the average annual annual sea surface temperature of the Black Sea in the worst scenario increased to an average of 3.5 to 4 degrees, from 15.5 degrees to more than 19 degrees, an average increase of more than 2 degrees increased from more than 2 degrees in the middle scenario.
The study showed that salting in the sea would increase 3 grams per kilogram in the worst scenario, 2 grams in the middle scenario and 1.5 grams in the best scenario.
“The energy of the storms in the north of Torkiye will increase”
Ilıcak, Türkiye, which increase the temperature and change in the temperature and salt content change and to change the effects of the storm swelling to examine the effects of models with high resolution, he said.
Ilıcak found that the low resolution of global ocean models for regional studies is not sufficient that smaller climatic simulations are produced for the Black Sea and the Mediterranean with high resolution models using a common method in atmospheric modeling.
Ilıcak explained that they found interesting results, “the worst RCP8.5 scenario in the northern Black Sea, the energy of the storms in the north of Torkiye will increase. The greatest effect of increasing the temperature of the black sea increases storms.
When he reminded that the water began to expand, Ilıcak began to increase in the sea level in this case, and this result was no surprise, he said.
“Salt the floor”
Ilıcak underlines that the sea will increase the salinity of the sea and said that they could present a factor that they could not imagine as a result of the study. Ilıcak, “Agriculture near the country of the land level in the country is salted.” He said.
Ilıcak, especially in Menderes, levels, fully salted the increase in sea level in the soil, a certain region can no longer be stressed for agriculture.
Ilıcak shared the following reviews with:
“The Black Sea probably becomes a living sea that becomes much less than a living sea. The number and severity of the waves of sea heat will increase depending on the simulations. This increases the death of the fish and causes the volume of the overall fish.”
Ilıcak explained that you will use the high -resolution ocean model for the Black Sea by scaling it in the following simulations and informing that the same method is used for the Mediterranean and the Aegean in the following time.
Ilıcak completed his words as follows:
“This is a global problem, it is necessary to accept it. The emissions have to be reduced as soon as possible. The increase in carbon emissions by 2035 will continue, then we will see the decline. All emissions in every area of the industry must decrease in every phase. If the goals do not remain well.”
Bir yanıt yazın